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21-Jul-2017 18:00

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The combination of expansions and recessions, the ebb and flow of economic activity, is called the business cycle.

and Wesley Mitchell in their 1946 book Measuring Business Cycles.

Country level indicators provide us with useful insights.

The duration of business cycles can be anywhere from about two to twelve years, with most cycles averaging six years in length.In the latest edition of Global Horizons, Senior Global Economist James Mc Cann explains the analytical toolkit Standard Life Investments has developed to try and answer these difficult questions with more rigour.By creating business cycle indicators from a wide range of economic and financial data, we can get a better idea of the maturity of the current cycle.One of Burns and Mitchell’s key insights was that many economic indicators move together.

During an expansion, not only does output rise, but also employment rises and unemployment falls.

"A useful tool for forecasting the Euro-area business cycle phases," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004.